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On the Role of Exogenous Shocks in the Great Recession: the Evidence from Belarus
Ramanchyk, Nina ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Polyák, Oliver (referee)
In this thesis we provide evidence about the relative importance of foreign (Russian) and domestic monetary policy shocks for Belarusian economy. We employ a ten variable structural VAR model with block exogeneity and a set of dummy variables introduced to deal with instability of the data that corresponds to the periods of crises (2008 and 2011). We find that Belarus is significantly influenced by foreign shocks that account for 20 to 60 percent of fluctuations in domestic variables in the long run. The foreign demand and oil prices for Belarus are the main determinants of the domestic output and net export, while the foreign interest rate strongly affects Belarusian interest rate, money demand and the share of loans in GDP. Regarding the domestic monetary shocks, we find that the exchange rate is the most important channel in the Belarusian monetary transmission mechanism. We conclude that deeper trade integration with Russia could be beneficial for Belarusian economy, while in case of the monetary union creation the conduct of an independent monetary policy in Belarus could be further complicated.
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(How) Does low inflation in euro area affect inflation in the Czech Republic?
Veselý, Vladimír ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.
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Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours
Moisei, Daniela ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
Charles University Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER'S THESIS Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours Author: Bc. DanielaMoisei Supervisor: Prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2017/2018 Abstract The proposed study analyses the economic linkages between five Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and the euro area, in the period 2006-2017, applying the block-restriction vector autoregression model. It allows evaluating the amplitude and persistence of the domestic vs. euro area shocks on four macroeconomic indicators: real GDP, short-term interest rate, CPI, and FX rate. The main findings emphasize that EU members are more economically synchronized with the euro area, responding to external factors in less than 10 months. Nevertheless, the Central Banks of the East European countries react extensively to the ECB monetary policy shocks, following broadly its short-term interest rate. Eastern Neighbourhood countries and Central EU members demonstrated tight connections with the euro area, in terms of international transmission of price shocks and economic activity synchronization. Thus, Czech Republic and Romania could be relevant models for the Eastern European countries, reaching...
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(How) Does low inflation in euro area affect inflation in the Czech Republic?
Veselý, Vladimír ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.
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On the Role of Exogenous Shocks in the Great Recession: the Evidence from Belarus
Ramanchyk, Nina ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Polyák, Oliver (referee)
In this thesis we provide evidence about the relative importance of foreign (Russian) and domestic monetary policy shocks for Belarusian economy. We employ a ten variable structural VAR model with block exogeneity and a set of dummy variables introduced to deal with instability of the data that corresponds to the periods of crises (2008 and 2011). We find that Belarus is significantly influenced by foreign shocks that account for 20 to 60 percent of fluctuations in domestic variables in the long run. The foreign demand and oil prices for Belarus are the main determinants of the domestic output and net export, while the foreign interest rate strongly affects Belarusian interest rate, money demand and the share of loans in GDP. Regarding the domestic monetary shocks, we find that the exchange rate is the most important channel in the Belarusian monetary transmission mechanism. We conclude that deeper trade integration with Russia could be beneficial for Belarusian economy, while in case of the monetary union creation the conduct of an independent monetary policy in Belarus could be further complicated.
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